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Next Gen Stats: Time To Throw, A. Smith vs T. Brady, 2020

Next Gen Stats: Time To Throw, A. Smith vs T. Brady, 2020


Next Gen Stats: Time To Throw, A. Smith vs T. Brady, 2020

Next Gen Stats: Time To Throw, A. Smith vs T. Brady, 2020


For any NFL football fan, NFL blogger, NFL insider, Next Gen Stats are a great resource to educate oneself on the level of play on the field in the league. Always considered a copycat league, teams are looking to innovate and gain an edge.


For example, from the NEXT GEN Website here are 3 of a litany of stats which the NFL Next Gen Stats are keeping track of as of this season (released on the website and to the public).  These are passing statistics.


Average Completed Air Yards (CAY) and Average Intended Air Yards (IAY)

Air Yards is the vertical yards on a pass attempt at the moment the ball is caught in relation to the line of scrimmage. CAY shows the average Air Yards a passer throws on completions, and IAY shows the average Air Yards a passer throws on all attempts. This metric shows how far the ball is being thrown ‘downfield’. Air Yards is recorded as a negative value when the pass is behind the Line of Scrimmage. Additionally Air Yards is calculated into the back of the end zone to better evaluate the true depth of the pass.


Average Air Yards Differential (AYD)

Air Yards Differential is calculated by subtracting the passer’s average Intended Air Yards from his average Completed Air Yards. This stat indicates if he is on average attempting deep passes than he on average completes.


Longest Completed Air Distance (LCAD)

Air Distance is the amount of yards the ball has traveled on a pass, from the point of release to the point of reception (as the crow flies). Unlike Air Yards, Air Distance measures the actual distance the passer throws the ball.


For this article, to keep things simplistic while focusing on Was vs TBB and in particular the QB Battle on sat in WAS, we will just focus on tie to throw.



Time To Throw (TT)

Time to Throw measures the average amount of time elapsed from the time of snap to throw on every pass attempt for a passer (sacks excluded)


While this analog is unscientific, it seemed like one of the key moments of last Sunday PHI WFT game on Sunday game came when Smith found tight end Logan Thomas with the eventual game winning td towards the end of the 1st half. That whole drive it appeared that Smith had more time to operate in a 2-minute offense and was able to orchestra a great timely drive.  More plays and drives like this will be needed for WFT to win on Sunday. But do the numbers point to this against Tom Brady and TBB!


Interestingly, PHI QB Jalen Hurt led (TT) in limited action with a 3.11 (1st).  His 1-3 record notes that (TT) does not valid or guarantee success or wins.

However, Alex Smith ranked 29th with a respectable 2.63 (TT) and was able to display a 5-1 record.

Tom Brady on the other hand ranked 33rd with a 2.57 yet played 10 more games than Smith.  At 11-5, Brady was 4 spots below Smith.

For example, a player in the middle of the pack, fan favorite and HOF and arguably GOAT Aaron Rodgers ranked 21stwith a 2.72, 13-3.

Interestingly, Baker Mayfield and his 3.05 was good for 2nd and an 11-5 record.


This blogger wonders if teams have their own stats and measures: this blogger would think that question is unimportant in deciding who a fan feels is a GOAT!

Of course, TB Buc fans would point to the BUCS 4 game December winning streak where 27, 31, 47 and 44 points were scored to dispute records early in the season detractors, might point to their week 12 loss at KCC, 27-24 as still a possible stumbling block to a perfect 5-0 ending.


So, Offensive genius vs upstarts WFT could come down to 1 or 2 plays on the o line or d line.  Whatever the case, (TT) and Next Gen can help to figure out those intangibles come game day!


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One Response to “Next Gen Stats: Time To Throw, A. Smith vs T. Brady, 2020”

  1. Ghost of Sammy Baugh says:

    Sign Taylor Heinicke.
    Re-hab Kyle Allen.
    Find another three if Alex Smith says,”no mas.”
    In that eventuality, draft a QB late only if one is not had at a reasonable price in FA.
    As an alternative, keep Steve Montez only if he showed good development over the 2020 season.
    I would not draft a QB unless one of the top three presents in the draft which is NOT likely.
    We need a running mate for Terry McLaurin, a starting LT, and a second TE behind Logan Thomas,
    a fourth running back, and a re-sign of Brandon Scherff.
    Five good FA gets are not likely.
    Likewise, five good draft picks are not likely.
    A combination of the two is likely however.
    Three Fa’s and two draft picks would be nice.
    Draft a fifth DT in the seventh round.
    The need for an upgrade at OLB and ILB can’t be overstated.
    Cole Holcomb is a keeper.
    Jon Bostic and Kevin Pierre-Louis are good rotational pieces.
    Losing Shaun Dion-Hamilton was a good move ahead of new personnel changes in the LB room.
    A corner is needed preferably both though FA, and a late draft pick.
    If KYLE SMITH I trust.
    SS should be set with Kamrun Curl, and Landon Collins unless Collins is moved to OLB.
    If a top FA corner is brought in, Kendall Fuller could be moved to FS.
    Otherwise, FS is the top FA, or draft need on defense.
    Jeremy Reaves is a good backup, and Troy Apke on teams and emergency FS.
    Say good-bye and thanks to Deshazor Everett.

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