As of today, the Redskins would have the 7th selection in the 2012 NFL Draft

For those of us who are keeping a close on the Redskins 2012 draft positioning, this information is especially geared towards you: ff the season ended right now, the Redskins would own the 7th overall selection in the 2012 NFL Draft.

Here”s a breakdown of the top 10 picks (as of this morning), based on each team”s current record, and their current strength of schedule (SOS). Source: (a great site which I highly recommend, especially between after the Super Bowl and through the NFL draft).

1. Indianapolis Colts                   1-13           .536
2. Minnesota Vikings                  2-12           .567
3. St. Louis Rams                       2-12           .589
4. Jacksonville Jaguars              4-10           .500
5. Cleveland Browns                  4-10           .522
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers        4-10           .545
7. Washington Redskins            5-9             .469
8. Carolina Panthers                  5-9             .504
9. Miami Dolphins                       5-9             .518
10. Buffalo Bills                          5-9             .522

Unlike in playoff considerations and seedings, head-to-head victories are not considered a primary tiebreaker, when determining which team gets what selection; the primary tiebreaker goes to the team with the lowest overall SOS, based on the win-loss percentage of their 2011-2012 opponents. If two teams have the same win-loss record and the same strength of schedule, the next (and final) tiebreaker comes via a league-administered coin flip (no, i”m really not making that up).

The Redskins have consistently maintained one of the lowest strength of schedules this season (I can”t remember the last time our SOS was above .500), giving them the ultimate edge in tiebreaker scenarios. There”s a report out there that the Dolphins would currently pick 7th in the draft, ahead of the Redskins. Based on the information I”m seeing, from a source I do consider highly reliable, that report simply isn”t accurate.

Mathematically, the best case scenario for the Redskins, as far as securing the best possible draft selection, would be getting the 4th overall pick in the draft. That would require all of the following:

– the Redskins losing both of their remaining games (they host the Minnesota Vikings this Saturday, and then travel to Philadelphia for the season finale on January 1st)
– Minnesota winning both its remaining games (at the Redskins this Saturday, and then home against Chicago)
– St. Louis winning both its remaining games (at Pittsburgh this Saturday, then against San Francisco; as bad as the Rams have been this year, even one win against either team would be nothing short of miraculous)
– Jacksonville (at Tennessee & vs. Indianapolis), Tampa Bay (at Carolina & at Atlanta), and Cleveland (at Baltimore & at Pittsburgh) each to win at least one of their remaining games.

Even if the Redskins do lose every remaining game on their schedule, I don”t think they”ll pick any higher than 6th overall, based on the unlikeliness of those needed outcomes.

Conversely, if the Redskins beat Minnesota on Saturday (a very possible scenario given the way they”ve played over the last few weeks), they”ll probably drop down to somewhere around the 10th overall pick. And if they somehow beat Philadelphia, with a 7-9 record, you”re now looking at picking in the 13th-14th overall range (in 2010, St. Louis finished 7-9 and had the lowest SOS, and picked 14th in the 2011 draft).

In other news: if the Indianapolis Colts lose one more game (they”re playing the AFC South-leading Houston Texans on Thursday night) and their current SOS holds up, they”ll have wrapped up the chance to select Andrew Luck from Stanford University.


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One Response to “As of today, the Redskins would have the 7th selection in the 2012 NFL Draft”

  1. […] As of today, the Redskins would have the 7th selection in the 2012 NFL Draft For those of us who are keeping a close on the Redskins 2012 draft positioning, this information is especially geared towards you: ff the season ended right now, the Redskins would own the 7th overall selection in the 2012 NFL Draft. Here’s a b… […]